Direct, Indirect, and Induced Effects of Chain Stores on the Cape Cod Regional Economy
Smart Planning & Growth Coalition
FXM assessed the effect that big box and other chain retailers could have on the overall economy of Cape Cod if growth in retail demand were largely captured by the chains by 2014. The study involved an analysis of secondary source data and case studies done in other communities; an independent baseline econometric forecast of population, employment, and income growth in the regional economy; and application of the R/Econ input output model to measure total direct, indirect, and induced effects on output, jobs, earned income, profits and other unearned income, and local, state, and federal taxes. The study concluded that if chain stores captured 50% of forecast growth in retail demand that by 2014 the Cape Cod region would lose over 9,000 jobs, $600 million per year in business output, over $200 million per year in household income, and over $10 million per year in local taxes.
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Review of Medfield State Hospital Redevelopment Proposals
Town of Medfield, Massachusetts
FXM Associates undertook a detailed review of state redevelopment plans for an 80-acre former mental hospital in order to examine the viability of reuse and environmental remediation assumptions, economic feasibility, and fiscal impacts on the town. Key elements of this research and analysis focused on economic issues related to the National Historic Landmark status of the Medfield State Hospital campus and buildings, and physical constraints influencing marketability of a proposed 300+ unit retirement community at the site. FXM and its subconsultant Earth Tech, Inc. analyzed financial data and pro formas prepared by the Department of Capital Asset Management for two redevelopment scenarios, and found significant additional costs that would have to be borne by potential developers. The fiscal impact of the reuse plans and alternative development scenarios formulated by FXM were found to be positive. FXMís report provided the town a blueprint for assessing future development options, including value and net fiscal impacts per unit for single family, condominium, assisted living, and skilled nursing facilities.
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Economic Effects of a Building Cap
Town of Barnstable, MA
FXM Associates prepared an independent assessment of the impact a reduction in the number of permits issued for new single family home construction would have on related industry employment, household earnings, local spending, town infrastructure projects, town school enrollment, and overall fiscal health of the town. FXM interviewed town and school employees, residents, and local contractors and suppliers. Other towns which had adopted building caps were visited and assessed to learn from their experiences. The final assessment included a discussion of the time value of money, the countdown in years to total buildout, the real estate tax impact, economic loss from reduced housing, versus gain from fewer demands on many outdated infrastructure elements. Also included in the study was the impact on varying the type of construction including remodels, tear-downs, and renovations, as well as the impact on the type of product, including market rate and affordable housing. A final recommendation for a phased-in approach was suggested.
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Port of New Bedford, Benefit/Cost Analysis of Navigational Dredging
New Bedford Harbor Development Commission, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
FXM is assessing possible direct, indirect, and induced economic effects of dredging the navigational channel in New Bedford/Fairhaven Harbor. Analyses include projections of potential cargo vessel and large cruise ship callings, relationships between channel depths and fishing and other vessel users of the port, potential business sales and jobs created for local maritime and seafood industries and integrated logistics/wholesaling firms, and the indirect and induced effects of expanded economic activity in the New Bedford and regional economy. FXM is also assessing potential travel time savings to oceangoing vessels, in accordance with the USACOE benefit/cost methodology.
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Fall River State Pier Redevelopment
Massachusetts Seaport Advisory Council and City of Fall River, Massachusetts
As part of a consulting team headed by Bermello Ajamil & Partners (Miami, FL), FXM conducted a benefit/cost analysis of redevelopment options for the State Pier in Fall River. The study involved assessment of market demand, including ocean freight, cruise ship callings, excursion vessels, and mixed-use office, commercial, and meeting space; concept and design options, including construction cost estimates; and an economic benefit and cost assessment, addressing direct, indirect, and induced effects on business sales, jobs, and taxes within Fall River and the state overall. FXM’s responsibilities included the market demand estimates for ocean freight and excursion vessels, and the technical analysis of economic and fiscal benefits and costs. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts has pledged to spend up to $18 million in reconstruction and expansion of State Pier in Fall River, as part of the Commonwealth’s Seaport Bond Initiative.
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Economic Impacts of Golf Course Operations
The National Golf Foundation
FXM Associates conducted an analysis to estimate the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of golf course operations nationwide on the U.S. economy, including effects on business output (sales), employment, wages, value added, and federal/state/local tax revenues. The final report included discussion of economic impact assessment methodologies; profiles of typical municipal, daily fee, and private course operations; case study examples of the economic and fiscal impacts of specific courses; and a how-to workbook for golf industry associations, course operators, and developers to guide their evaluation of economic impacts on local communities and regions. Copies of FXM Associates' report, The Economic Impact of Golf Course Operations on Local, Regional, and National Economies, may be obtained from the National Golf Foundation, Jupiter, Florida, (407) 744-6006. Subsequent to this assignment, FXM has assisted NGF in separate studies of the economic effects of the golf industry in Southern California, Arizona, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania.
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MacMillan Pier Economic and Financial Assessment
Massachusetts Development Finance Agency
FXM Associates assessed the economic impacts attributable to users of the public pier in Provincetown, Massachusetts, and analyzed the financial consequences of existing and prospective new pier operations. FXM’s analysis showed that users of MacMillan Pier -- including whale watch and charter vessels, ferry service to Boston, commercial fishing, and the pirate ship Whydah Museum -- generated over $26 million in lodging, restaurant, gift shop, and other business sales, and accounted for over 600 full- and part-time jobs. These were significant effects within the Provincetown and outer Cape Cod economy. The evaluation also indicated that a properly reconstructed and managed pier facility could generate net operating income and contribute additional economic benefits within the regional economy.
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Hyannis Freight Economic Impact Study, Massachusetts
Woods Hole, Martha’s Vineyard & Nantucket Steamship Authority
FXM analyzed a shipping survey of all freight to and from Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard to determine the type and value of freight originating in Hyannis. Of particular interest was identifying what products and supplies were purchased from businesses in Hyannis as a means of measuring the economic value of island freight relative to Hyannis’s businesses. Overall amounts of wholesale goods and jobs supported were derived from the data and summarized to reflect the economic significance of the Steamship Authority’s services in and out of Hyannis.
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Fiscal and Economic Effects of a Proposed Major Retirement Community
Brandt Point Corporation and the Town of Mattapoisett, Massachusetts
FXM completed an in-depth assessment of the potential fiscal and economic effects of a proposed 450-unit retirement community in the Town of Mattapoisett. At full buildout, the project would add nearly 20 percent to the current town-wide housing inventory. FXM analyzed 10 years of historical data on municipal revenues and costs, by line item category; prepared independent forecasts of population by age cohort and number of school age children for the town overall; assessed the effects of comparable projects in other communities; and conducted extensive interviews with municipal and school department officials to assess capacity constraints and the potential marginal costs of new development on water, sewer, roadway, police, fire, and school infrastructure as well as operating capabilities and budgets. Copies of FXM’s report were distributed to over 400 town residents, and the methodology and findings discussed at a major public hearing and Special Town Meeting.
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Trout Brook Valley Golf Club and Residences, Easton, Connecticut
National Fairways
FXM Associates provided the developers of an exclusive housing and golf development an independent financial analysis of the project’s impact on the Town of Easton. FXM investigated all municipal service income and expense to the town, examined statewide and local trends to determine prospective school enrollment and costs per student, assessed market feasibility by looking at comparable developments for both upscale housing and golf courses, and evaluated marginal impacts on the town that might drive future capital or infrastructure needs. FXM provided a highly detailed summary and spreadsheets listing all income sources and expenses over a one- to ten-year time frame for the developer’s use in their approval process with the town.
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Portland, Maine, Waterfront Development and Master Planning Study
City of Portland, Maine
FXM was part of a consultant team that assisted the Portland Department of Planning and Urban Design in evaluating the implications of proposed ferry and cruise ship terminal development on adjacent waterfront users, as well as surrounding residential neighborhoods. FXM’s role was to assess potential economic effects, including business sales, employment, property values, and development potential along the waterfront and within adjacent residential neighborhoods.
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